Forecast and result
Democratic seats (source totals)
Analysis
Preliminary results as of November 4, 2026
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95.0%
Winner accuracy
418 of 440correct winner calls
22Missed calls
66Unscored races
Accuracy in close races
All called racesDecided by under 10 points
Median margin error
Projected margin and result
Right winnerMissed winner
State by state
Voter turnout
The election-night early tells
251Democratic House seats if Democrats won all four races
80% range: 241–274
80% range: 241–274
| Race | Forecast | D chance | Result | Status |
|---|
Every called race
| Race | Forecast | Result | Margin error | Winner call |
|---|
Data and sources
- Forecast
- November 3, 2026, final adjustments
- Results
- November 4, 2026, preliminary
- Coverage
- 440 called races
- Results source
- DDHQ, AP and state counts via Poliwave