Senate predictions
35 race forecasts, with a national view of the 100-seat Senate and the projected balance between Democrats, Republicans and independents.
Baraza’s 2026 Predictions
A clearer view of the races ahead.
Explore Senate, House and governor forecasts, powered by Maya.
Last updated Forecast data as of
Predictions
Across the country
The closest races
All available races, from smallest to largest projected margin.
| Rank | Race | Candidates | Projected margin | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Maine SenateMaine · US Senate | Troy Jackson (D)Susan Collins (R) | R +0.04pts | Toss-up |
| 2 | PA-8: Cognetti vs. BresnahanPennsylvania · US House | Paige Cognetti (D)Rob Bresnahan (R) | R +0.08pts | Toss-up |
| 3 | VA-1: Taylor vs. WittmanVirginia · US House | Shannon Taylor (D)Rob Wittman (R) | D +0.14pts | Toss-up |
| 4 | KY-6: Dembo vs. AlvaradoKentucky · US House | Zach Dembo (D)Ralph Alvarado (R) | D +0.18pts | Toss-up |
| 5 | OH-9: Kaptur vs. MerrinOhio · US House | Marcy Kaptur (D)Derek Merrin (R) | D +0.38pts | Toss-up |
| 6 | Iowa SenateIowa · US Senate | Josh Turek (D)Ashley Hinson (R) | R +0.59pts | Toss-up |
| 7 | Ohio SenateOhio · US Senate | Sherrod Brown (D)Jon Husted (R) | D +0.70pts | Toss-up |
| 8 | AR-2: Jones vs. HillArkansas · US House | Chris Jones (D)French Hill (R) | R +0.75pts | Toss-up |
| 9 | IA-2: James vs. MitchellIowa · US House | Lindsay James (D)Joe Mitchell (R) | R +0.78pts | Toss-up |
| 10 | NC-11: Ager vs. BalkcomNorth Carolina · US House | Jamie Ager (D)Jennifer Balkcom (R) | R +0.81pts | Toss-up |
| 11 | Nevada GovernorNevada · Governor | Aaron Ford (D)Joe Lombardo (R) | R +0.86pts | Toss-up |
| 12 | Ohio GovernorOhio · Governor | Amy Acton (D)Vivek Ramaswamy (R) | D +0.88pts | Toss-up |
| 13 | ME-2: Dunlap vs. LePageMaine · US House | Matthew Dunlap (D)Paul LePage (R) | R +1.00pts | Lean R |
| 14 | Texas SenateTexas · US Senate | James Talarico (D)Ken Paxton (R) | D +1.00pts | Toss-up |
| 15 | MI-7: Lawrence vs. BarrettMichigan · US House | William Lawrence (D)Tom Barrett (R) | R +1.11pts | Lean R |
| 16 | FL-22: Dandiya vs. AskarFlorida · US House | Pia Dandiya (D)Casey Askar (R) | D +1.31pts | Lean D |
| 17 | MI-10: Hines vs. BouchardMichigan · US House | Christina Hines (D)Mike Bouchard Jr. (R) | R +1.31pts | Lean R |
| 18 | Alaska SenateAlaska · US Senate | Mary Peltola (D)Dan Sullivan (R) | D +1.48pts | Lean D |
| 19 | CO-3: Romero vs. HurdColorado · US House | Dwayne Romero (D)Jeff Hurd (R) | R +1.63pts | Lean R |
| 20 | VA-2: Luria vs. KiggansVirginia · US House | Elaine Luria (D)Jen Kiggans (R) | D +1.90pts | Lean D |
2026 election forecasts, powered by Maya
Explore Baraza’s predictions for the US Senate, US House of Representatives and governor elections. Compare the current balance of seats with the projected outcome, select a state to view its races, or browse the closest contests across the country.
Forecast data as of . Coverage includes 489 races with projected margins.
House predictions
418 congressional district forecasts. Explore individual House races and compare the projected balance of the 435-seat chamber.
Governor predictions
36 governor race forecasts, alongside a national view of all 50 governorships, including offices not up for election.
Explore the closest races to compare candidates, ratings and projected margins across the country.
How to read the forecasts
Predictions and current seats: switch between the projected seat allocation and the current allocation. The smaller plus or minus figures show the projected change.
Vote share and win probability: projected two-party vote share comes from the forecast margin. Win probability estimates a candidate’s chance of winning; it is a different measure from the share of votes they are projected to receive.
Expected ballots: race details show estimated turnout and the candidate ballot allocation where available. Candidate counts plus other or blank ballots add up to the expected ballot total.
Uncertainty: race details include the supplied 80% margin range where available. Candidate ballot ranges hold expected turnout fixed; turnout has its own uncertainty range. Forecasts are estimates, not election results.